While Anies and Cak Imin Officiated Their Pairing, PKS Was Absent. Here’s What It Could Mean.

(It’s a Sandiaga Uno Shaped Hole In The Wall!)

Tokyo, Japan - On the 2nd of September 2023, Anies Baswedan and Cak Imin, the Chairman of the PKB, officiated Cak Imin’s position as the Coalition of Change for Unity’s vice presidential pick, confirming a leak from Partai Demokrat just two days before claiming this pairing was a betrayal.

Taking place in Surabaya, the officiation ceremony was attended by the members of the leadership of PKB and NasDem, with the leadership of two other parties being noticeably absent. One is not that much of a surprise, that being Partai Demokrat which has already stated its intention to pull out from the Coalition of Change for Unity before the official announcement, but the absence of the leadership of another party may be a clue for the establishment of a fourth coalition of parties and with that a fourth presidential ticket.

The absent party leadership was the leadership of PKS, a party which has initially affirmed its continued support for Anies Baswedan’s presidential candidacy after Demokrat’s initial statement that the Coalition went behind its back by nominating Cak Imin as vice president. Although members of PKS attended the ceremony, PKS’ President Ahmad Syaikhu and his entourage did not show up, which means that PKS did not officially approve of the Anies-Cak Imin pairing.

Al Muzamil, a spokesperson for the PKS has claimed that they still officially back Anies as presidential candidate, but will be discussing with the Shura Council, that is the consultative decision-making body of the party on what steps to take next vis a vis policy on candidates for 2024.

This comes after a statement from SBY (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono) claiming that a cabinet minister has approached Demokrat to form a fourth coalition consisting of PPP, PKS, and Demokrat after AHY’s (Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono) bid for the vice presidency in Anies’ camp failed to come into fruition. Assuming this minister had the backing of PPP by the time he reached out to Demokrat and was ready to follow through with the offer, that means the only thing that stood between this potential fourth coalition was PKS’ final decision.

Should this absence be indicative of PKS’ willingness to join this fourth coalition, this would mean that a new presidential ticket has potentially already been formed behind the scenes.

Who is the Mystery Cabinet Minister?

Now, there are two cabinet ministers which would have the full backing of PPP. One is PPP Chairman Suharso Monoarfa, Minister for National Development Planning. It is possible that he reached out to Demokrat in order to form the fourth coalition, but it is unlikely Demokrat would accept the position of vice president instead of insisting for AHY to become president, considering AHY’s electability is above Suharso Monoarfa’s electability.

Therefore, we only see two real possibilities - either Sandiaga Uno reached out to Demokrat to propose a new candidacy with him as president and AHY as vice president, or Suharso reached out to Demokrat to achieve the same end. Now, it is possible the dynamics may continue to change, but if the political winds continue to blow where it is blowing, it is likely that Demokrat, PKS, and PPP have agreed on supporting the establishment of a fourth ticket - one with Sandiaga Uno as Presidential Candidate and AHY as Vice Presidential Candidate.

Should this come into fruition, PPP would be leaving the coalition supporting Ganjar Pranowo, leaving PDIP as the only party in the DPR (People’s Representative Council) putting forward Ganjar as their candidate. PDIP’s seat percentage in the parliament is still more than enough to cover for Ganjar’s candidacy.

PKS would be leaving the Coalition of Change for Unity, leaving NasDem and PKB the only parties still within it. These two parties combined barely pass the parliamentary threshold, meaning that an Anies-Cak Imin ticket is more than likely to make it to official candidate registrations.

Together, the three parties of Demokrat, PKS, and PPP pass the 20% parliamentary threshold of parties supporting a candidate to make a candidacy official, meaning that this run is very feasible and is likely to occur if the political will of the three parties remain where it is as of right now.

Prabowo’s Onward Indonesia Coalition would also continue to lose PKB, meaning that the only parties within the coalition that is in the DPR would be a coalition of Gerindra, Golkar, and PAN. These parties are more than enough to cover the 20% parliamentary threshold, so Prabowo’s official run is still very likely.

If the fourth coalition is formed and the candidates in the ticket are immediately declared, (Likely to be Sandiaga-AHY) this would no doubt put pressure on Ganjar and Prabowo’s camp to look for a vice presidential candidate as soon as possible. It would be necessary for these two camps to secure a boost in support by strategically selecting a vice presidential candidate, lest they get left behind in the polls due to enthusiasm for the already complete presidential tickets.

Who would be Ganjar and Prabowo’s Running Mate?

Should PPP leave Ganjar’s coalition, this would make Sandiaga Uno not an option for vice president, which would mean Ganjar would have to find someone with enough qualifications to run as his vice president and would give him an additional boost of support. This person could vary, but definitely would be someone from outside the PDIP to push back the image of party dominance. Figures could range from Mahfud MD to even Retired General Andhika Perkasa, figures that for the most part have bipartisan approval and a good public image.

As for Prabowo, the most feasible vice presidential running mate would be Erick Thohir, as PAN has shown consistent backing for the Minister considering he has the most electability out of everyone in Prabowo’s coalition. Other names may include Airlangga Hartarto, Yusril Mahendra, or even Zulkifli Hassan. But given the fact that these three figures do not claim a will to be vice president, and Zulkifli Hassan has been advocating for Erick Thohir to be Prabowo’s vice presidential candidate, this is unlikely.

Another possibility for Prabowo’s running mate is President Joko Widodo’s son and Mayor of Surakarta, Gibran Rakabuming. However, when asked about it, Gibran denied a will to be vice president for Prabowo, citing his age and his membership in PDIP, the party which put forward Ganjar Pranowo as their presidential candidate.

However, the Constitutional Court is currently considering lowering the age of candidacy to 30 from 40, which could potentially make Gibran eligible to run for president. All the denial could also just in the end prove to be strategic political talk, as politicians often deny possible pairings before eventually committing to them.

Future Consequences

What we can learn from all of this, as have been stated in previous articles, is that there is currently no solid ticket or coalition. It is possible that parties may switch coalitions or even make new ones, and it is possible unlikely alliances might be formed too. All this is a real possibility before the end of the official registration date which is the 25th of November 2023. Before this date, political parties can very much continue with their political strategies and the final presidential tickets we may get might look different than what have been speculated in the beginning of the year.

A candidacy of Sandi and AHY backed by the PPP, PKS, and Demokrat is likely to attempt to embrace the image of religious nationalism completely, keeping in mind PKS and PPP would sway the coalition to an Islamist nationalistic stance.

This would be contrasted with Anies and Cak Imin’s candidacy, backed by an Islamic nationalist party derived from Nahdlatul Ulama and still backed by grassroots member of Nahdlatul Ulama despite Imin’s apparent conflict with the Gus Dur camp of NU would take a more local-infused religious nationalist stance, especially as the only other party in the coalition is NasDem, a party which sways more nationalist and does not have an official religious label, unlike PKB, PKS, and indeed PPP which embraces the title of Islamic Nationalism.

However, in the end, this is all simply an educated speculation based on current political developments. The developments can pan out to be extremely different to what has been predicted in this article, so take these educated guesses with a grain of salt.