Potential Paths Forward for Partai Demokrat After Leaving Anies

Tokyo, Japan - After the developments in the Coalition of Change for Unity that has occurred in this very consequential week in the lead up to the official 2024 election campaign season, one thing that is clear is Demokrat has abandoned its support for Candidate Anies Baswedan, leaving the Coalition of Change for Unity and currently not being part of any coalition.

From here, we believe Partai Demokrat only has 3 possible routes it can take to at the very least maintain its presence in the 2024 election. As Demokrat has practically sworn off support of Anies Baswedan, this leaves NasDem and PKB out of the parties that Demokrat could potentially collaborate with, as Demokrat initially left the Coalition of Change for Unity due to PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin) being selected as Anies Baswedan’s vice president with the support of NasDem Chairman Surya Paloh.

Possibility 1: New Coalition

Demokrat could still possibly collaborate with one party still within the Coalition of Change for Unity - that party being the PKS. It is possible that Demokrat would make a new coalition with PKS as a member, but that coalition being made up of Demokrat and PKS alone would not be enough to register a presidential candidate considering the two parties combined do not reach the 20% threshold.

However, based on SBY’s previous statements, there has been suggestions from a cabinet minister to form a new coalition making up PPP, PKS, and Demokrat. These three parties combined passed the 20% threshold, so a new ticket could be formed.

The formation of a new coalition is also the most likely to secure Demokrat Chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) a position as either a presidential or vice presidential candidate.

However, this possibility as of right now seems like a tall order. For one, Sandiaga Uno, which would most likely be the main star of this coalition should it even form, has stated his commitment for PPP’s support of Ganjar Pranowo and is a favorite among political observers to take the spot of Ganjar’s Vice Presidential Candidate. When comparing the electability of AHY and Ganjar, the safest option for Sandiaga would be to be Ganjar’s wingman.

It is possible Sandiaga touted the idea of forming a new coalition, but this could simply be an exploration and nothing necessarily concrete, as is often the case in politics. (Just ask AHY about Anies!)

In this new coalition, it is likely that the ticket would either be Sandi-AHY, as Sandiaga’s electability is higher than that of AHY’s.

Possibility 2: Back to the Old Days!

Another possibility is for Demokrat to travel down memory lane and declare its support for Prabowo Subianto and his Onward Indonesia Coalition of parties consisting of the parties represented in the DPR being PAN, Gerindra, and Golkar. (With additional support from parties not in the DPR RI including PBB and Gelora).

However, in this scenario, it is not necessarily plausible for AHY to get tapped as Prabowo’s Vice Presidential Candidate. The competition is quite tight, and AHY would have to contend with Airlangga Hartarto, Yusril Mahendra, and Erick Thohir.

Should AHY get picked over Erick Thohir by Prabowo, the Coalition runs the risk of losing PAN, which has been wholeheartedly supporting Erick Thohir as Prabowo’s Vice President ever since joining the coalition.

Therefore, the most possible situation Demokrat would have themselves be in should they choose to become Prabowo’s coalition partner is to be given positions in the cabinet in the event of Prabowo’s victory.

Possibility 3: Reconciliation with the Banteng in the Room

Another possibility is for Demokrat to partner with a party that it has been political opponents with for the better part of two decades, PDIP. In this scenario, Demokrat would be supporting Ganjar, but would have to contend with Sandiaga Uno for a position as Ganjar’s Vice Presidential Candidate.

This is unlikely to shape up to AHY being selected as the candidate however, as Sandiaga Uno’s electability is much higher than AHY’s. Similar to the situation with Prabowo, Demokrat would simply become a coalition partner in Ganjar’s camp and perhaps secure a ministerial position in the event of Ganjar’s victory.

From the side of Ganjar’s coalition, both PDIP and PPP have showcased a willingness for Demokrat to join its coalition, announcing that lines of communications are open for the party should they choose to join Ganjar’s camp.

Conclusion

From all these possibilities, what we can conclude is that for Demokrat, the higher the risk they take, the higher the reward they get. Should they insist on AHY as part of a presidential ticket, the best bet is to do their best to secure PKS and PPP’s support to form a new coalition, but if they simply want to be on the winning side it would be wise to join Ganjar or Prabowo’s camp and get a say in the government should the side they choose win.

What is clear is that Demokrat must pick a side and enter a coalition before the registration of the candidates.

In any case, it would be wise for Demokrat to make a solid decision and move towards making that decision a reality as soon as possible, otherwise they would get left behind by the other candidates and may not have that much of a bargaining chip should they join an existing coalition late.